Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Jason Van Gaal's avatar

I go back and forth on this. If you have a look at 2000-2003 the Russel out performed the nasdaq. Similar patterns did occur as well in the 1970s. However they still trended down. So they certainly seem to be a less bad option.

FCF yield(buyback + dividend adjusted) is our baseline financial metric. We then apply a whole munch of others.

I've tracked the first three names fairly closely for the last 2 years.

With ZM and Docu - I don't think their moat is defined enough to maintain margins. They are not very operationally complex products IMO and easily substituted for by companies looking to reduce costs.

I like PLTR. My big concern is their buy revenue model and small high growth tech customer concentration. What type of churn will they see as some of these clients close shop or cut contact size? If you back out their bought revenue, what would their actual growth have been? Basically I need to rebuild revenue growth and forward looking growth which I haven't had time to do yet. I do think they are differentiated enough to defend margins.

Thoughts?

Expand full comment
1 more comment...

No posts