3/12/2024: February CPI Came in Hot Again
February CPI report was out this morning. Headline CPI MoM rose 0.4% in February vs. 0.3% in January while the core CPI MoM rose 0.4% in February vs. 0.4% in January. Headline CPI YoY rose 3.2% in February vs. 3.1% in January, 3.4% in December, 3.1% in November, 3.2% in October, 3.7% in September, 3.7% in August, 3.2% in July, 3% in June, 4.0% in May, 4.9% in April and 5% in March. Core CPI YoY rose 3.8% in February vs. 3.9% in January, 3.9% in December, 4% in November, 4% in October, 4.1% in September, 4.2% in August, 4.7% in July, 4.8% in June, 5.3% in May, 5.5% in April and 5.6% in March.
Core CPI MoM remained elevated at 0.4% in February!! Goods price index has fallen while Service inflation is still stubbornly high, at 5+% YoY (5.2% in February and 5.4% in January). Transportation CPI rose 9.9% YoY in February vs. 9.5% in January!! CPI for food away from home rose 4.5% in February vs. 5.1% in January. I don’t know if the war against inflation has been won but it appears the Fed is determined to cut rates this year. We will see what happens but if inflation ends up accelerating again, what is the Fed gonna do?