Internals for core where not good. I was very surprised more progress wasn't made with commodity costs falling so much. It seems like anything with high services(labour) input costs came in hot.
If oil was at 100$/barrel, headline would be above 5%.
Headline is higher now than June of this year. Core has fallen 10bps in last 3 months. Very little progress has been made against inflation in the last 6 months even with rates at these levels and oil falling.
Wages continue to increase >4% YoY.
Anyways. That's my rant. Celebrating inflation coming down towards 2% target very premature IMO.
Headline matters more to people.
Core matters more to Powell.
4% core is 100% above target.
Internals for core where not good. I was very surprised more progress wasn't made with commodity costs falling so much. It seems like anything with high services(labour) input costs came in hot.
If oil was at 100$/barrel, headline would be above 5%.
Headline is higher now than June of this year. Core has fallen 10bps in last 3 months. Very little progress has been made against inflation in the last 6 months even with rates at these levels and oil falling.
Wages continue to increase >4% YoY.
Anyways. That's my rant. Celebrating inflation coming down towards 2% target very premature IMO.