It seems Airbnb demand rolled over this quarter. Have a look at % decline Q3 to Q4 in 2021 and 2022(Q4 is seasonally low so need normalize seasonality). Also look at disproportionate drop in fcf QoQ and the large ramp in sales and marketing spend.
We see large bumps in sales and market spend when companies trying to buy growth in a declining macro or saturated SAM/TAM environment. In this case more aggressive discounts/promos. They hit growth inflection point tjis quarter. How far the growth trend reverses is tbd. Could be a single quarter issue could be many.
All this said, they are trading at something like 50x fcf. Much less than many of the other tech companies are trading at from this recent bear market bounce.
It seems Airbnb demand rolled over this quarter. Have a look at % decline Q3 to Q4 in 2021 and 2022(Q4 is seasonally low so need normalize seasonality). Also look at disproportionate drop in fcf QoQ and the large ramp in sales and marketing spend.
We see large bumps in sales and market spend when companies trying to buy growth in a declining macro or saturated SAM/TAM environment. In this case more aggressive discounts/promos. They hit growth inflection point tjis quarter. How far the growth trend reverses is tbd. Could be a single quarter issue could be many.
All this said, they are trading at something like 50x fcf. Much less than many of the other tech companies are trading at from this recent bear market bounce.