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(clarification: TSLA, but not SpaceX)

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very few folks brave enough to short Elon but now is prob the time

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I think Tesla has saturated it's total addressable market and these results show it.

Elon will need to figure out how to convince the vast majority of drivers (not only eager early adopters) to join the EV wave

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Kinda weird they left 2024 production forecast super open ended.

Everyone had forecasted a decline in growth rate with concencous sitting around 20%(2.2M) down from 37% this year. This is already down adjusted from the 50% Elon had committed to earlier in the year.

Will a new low cost car that competes with BYD 20k sticker price really help their margins? Their model 3 is already designed as a discount car, not sure what else they could possibly strip out of that?

Elon seemed to mention on the call the only way G8 auto companies can stay competitive with China auto is with government protection(tarrifs and incentives). I thought Elon was advocating for reduced government intervention earlier this year? This is not a great path for inflation or the deficit.

Another big issue for them is that PHEV is gaining market share as BEV declines in China. I suspect that trend comes to north America. A deloitte study released this month shows ev demand falling from 8% (2023) to 6%(2024). A 25% demand drop!

Why spend 20k on a battery pack when you can spend 2k for one 1/10th the size, eliminate range angsiety, eliminate cold weather issues and cover 80% of most commuters daily milage on electric? Tsla doesn't have a PHEV model which to me is a huge gap in their product line for the next 2-5 years.

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